Analysts at the British Barclays Bank and the consulting companies Capital Economics and Oxford Economics explain what would happen if Greece failed to agree with its partners and fulfil its commitments.
As stated by the website Business Insider, if Greece left the euro zone, the short-term consequences for it would be painful.
The first six consequences for Greece in the case of GREXIT would be as follows:
Returning to the drachma. Greece would have to abandon the euro and return to its national currency, the drachma (which might take a new name). The question is how quickly the government would print the new currency.
Depositors would try to withdraw their savings from the banks on a mass scale. The government would have to try to immediately tackle the situation. Let us recall that the European Central Bank had prepared a plan for a possible GREXIT as early as 2012 and it would probably have to resume it.
European support for Greek banks would be withdrawn. They currently have access to the Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) but it would be terminated if Greece left the euro.
Social unrest. Barclays analysts argue that a sudden collapse of the economy would cause "social unrest" and note that, in historical terms, such events lead to a 45-85% devaluation of the national currency. Capital Economics believes that the decline could be smoother, about 20%, whereas according to Oxford Economics it would be about 30%.
The National Bank of Greece could possibly launch its own programme to loosen the fiscal discipline and the government would most likely return to high deficits, since it would not be constrained by bailout rules.
Inflation would quickly rise. The experts at Capital Economics and Oxford Economics believe that the phenomenon would be temporary. Like the current situation in Russia, with the new currency in freefall until the exchange rate against the euro is found, prices in Greece would significantly and quickly rise.
However, the analysts at Capital Economics believe that a well-managed exit of the euro zone "could even end up as a favourable economic development for both Greece and the rest of the euro zone."
Tags: GREXITGreeceEuro zoneExitConsequencesBarclays Capital Economics Oxford Economics
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