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The consequences of a possible GREXIT for lenders

18 February 2015 / 17:02:34  GRReporter
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Yesterday we presented to you the six consequences for Greece if it leaves the euro zone. Today we offer the analysis of CNN, according to which the markets are not particularly worried by a possible GREXIT at present. According to the American news channel, this is due to seven main reasons as follows:

  1. Lenders are stronger: The structure of the debt has radically changed. In 2010, 85% of the debt was held by private investors, whereas 80% of Greek government debt is now held by governments and other organisations (the International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank), which are better equipped to cope with a possible GREXIT.
  2. Risk is spread out: No single bank holds Greek debt, and in the event of a GREXIT, the repercussion will not be significant. In 2014, foreign banks held only 46 billion of Greek debt compared to 300 billion in 2010.
  3. No fear of the so-called domino effect: Greece’s future is grim, but countries such as Portugal, Italy and Spain are doing very well, applying the painful rescue programmes imposed on them. At the same time, investors are more willing to lend to other countries because they do not worry about the domino effect in the event of a Greek default.
  4. Support from the European Central Bank: Although hesitant at first, the European Central Bank has resorted to quantitative easing, to the delight of investors. The bond buying programme is expected to boost the economy of the euro zone.
  5. Growth: the euro zone may be tackling the recession, but today it is in better shape compared to 2012, when a GREXIT was possible too. Euro zone’s GDP reported growth in the last quarter of 2014.
  6. The euro zone is protected: When the crisis hit the euro zone in 2010, its leaders had no plan but it is now better protected through the bailout fund amounting to $800 billion and the rules that have been agreed.
  7. Stocks are rising: Investors appear unfazed at the prospect of a wider crisis in the euro zone. Despite the Greek impasse, major European stock markets are at record levels.
Tags: GreeceDebt crisisLendersNegotiationsConsequencesGREXIT
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