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Election thriller with many players

12 September 2015 / 14:09:29  GRReporter
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University of Macedonia: SYRIZA is holding the lead

Compared to the previous poll by the University of Macedonia, the increase in the approval for SYRIZA (+ 1.5%) is three times higher than that for New Democracy (+0.5%).

The results are from another poll that the University conducted between 1-3 September on behalf of Skai TV, following the TV debate between party leaders, and show the following preferences for the parties:

  • SYRIZA - 28.5% (27% in the last poll)
  • New Democracy - 27.5% (27%)
  • Golden Dawn - 7% (6.5%)
  • Communist Party: 6% (6%)
  • PASOK - 5.5% (4.5%)
  • Potami - 5% (5.5%)
  • Union of Centrists - 4.5% (4.5%)
  • Popular Unity - 3% (4%)
  • Independent Greeks: 2% (1.5%)
  • Another party - 3% (3%)
  • Do not know/do not want to respond - 8% (10.5%)

The greatest transfer of votes is recorded from Independent Greeks to New Democracy (20% of voters of Independent Greeks in January). 13% of Potami voters have transferred to SYRIZA and 17% to New Democracy. The number of undecided is lower too.

That poll also accounts for the low mobilization of SYRIZA voters. Only 61% of those who voted for the party in January will do so in the coming elections. 9% have transferred to New Democracy and 7% to undecided voters.

GPO: SYRIZA and New Democracy - a breath away, 9 parties in parliament

A poll conducted on 20 September by GPO for Mega TV indicates a derby for the first place in the elections.

The parties have received the following percentages:

  • SYRIZA - 26%
  • New Democracy - 25.8%
  • Golden Dawn - 6.5%
  • PASOK - 6%
  • Communist Party - 5.7%
  • Potami - 4.4%
  • Popular Unity - 3.6%
  • Union of Centrists - 3.3%
  • Independent Greeks - 3%
  • Another party - 1.3%
  • Abstention/white ballot - 4.4%
  • I do not know/do not want to respond - 10%

 

Evangelos Meimarakis continues to lead in terms of popularity with 45% compared to 42.9% for Alexis Tsipras, followed by Fofi Genimata and Stavros Theodorakis with 40.2%, Dimitris Koutsoubas 28.4% Panos Kammenos 26.8%, Panagiotis Lafazanis 22.1% and Nikos Michaloliakos with 11.5%.

The mobilization of party voters will play a key role for the outcome of the electoral battle. New Democracy has already secured 80% of those voters who supported it in January. In addition, one of every ten voters of Potami and Golden Dawn has transferred to it.

In contrast, SYRIZA has mobilized only 60% of January's voters and hopes to increase their number. At the same time, the party has won 14% of the voters of Independent Greeks and 12% of those of Potami.

As for the TV debate on Wednesday, 26.3% of respondents state that the leaders were not convincing. The most positive impression is left by Evangelos Meimarakis with 18.5% whereas Alexis Tsipras receives the approval of 18% of respondents. Stavros Theodorakis ranks next with 10.5%, Fofi Genimata 10%, Dimitris Koutsoubas 8%, Panos Kammenos 3.3%, Panagiotis Lafazanis with 3%.

Metron Analysis: Derby at the top - the Communist Party is overtaking Golden Dawn

The sociological study carried out by Metron Analysis for Parapolitika shows differences within the statistical error, both between SYRIZA and New Democracy, and between smaller parties.

The results of the parties are as follows:

  • SYRIZA - 25%
  • New Democracy - 24.7%
  • Golden Dawn - 4.9%
  • Communist Party - 4.7%
  • Union of Centrists - 4.6%
  • Potami - 4.4%
  • PASOK - 4.1%
  • Popular Unity - 2.6%
  • Independent Greeks - 2.4%
  • Another party/Undecided - 22.6%

Because of the small margin the first place will be clear at the last second. The entry of Popular Unity and Independent Greeks in parliament will depend on whether they will be able to attract a percentage of undecided voters.

Evangelos Meimarakis is holding the lead in positive assessments with 46%, followed by Alexis Tsipras with 45%. As for the assessment of the government of SYRZA and Independent Greeks, 68% of respondents have a negative opinion, only 24% a positive one and 6% have no opinion.

With regard to Greece’s staying in the euro zone, 82% reply with yes whereas 15% support the return to the drachma.

Tags: PollsSYRIZANew DemocracyUniversity of MacedoniaGPOMetron Analysis
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