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The euro zone discusses a Greek default scenario for the first time

12 June 2015 / 18:06:09  GRReporter
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The Greek default scenario for the first time is officially on the negotiating table of Athens and its creditors, reports international agency Reuters, as the issue has been raised by senior European officials.

According to sources from the euro zone referred to by the agency, the representatives of the 18 member states consider as highly unlikely the striking of a deal with Athens before the period within which it has to pay its debts to the International Monetary Fund.

They perceive the Greek default as the most possible way out of the situation, despite the discussion on the probability of extending the bailout under certain conditions.

The agency reports that the meeting of the Euro Working Group in Bratislava discussed three possible scenarios for Greece.

The first involves an agreement within the next week and guarantees for reforms on the part of Greece, which seems very difficult to implement due to lack of time.

The second scenario provides for a bailout extension under specific conditions.

The third scenario is associated with a possible Greek default.

According to the same sources, the discussion in the Euro Working Group did not end with firm conclusions. The participants in the meeting noted that such a scenario would surely impose capital controls in order to prevent capital flight from Greece. In addition, the state would settle its payments with IOUs, informal documents that are secured with a promise that they will be redeemed at a later stage.

In addition, Reuters reports that the euro zone central bankers are ready to cut Greece's financing through the Emergency Liquidity Facility if Athens fails to agree with its creditors.

According to other European officials that the agency cites, it is just a matter of time for the funding to Greece to be cut and capital controls imposed. They argue that it would be crazy to cut the funding from the Emergency Liquidity Assistance while the discussions were underway but everything would change if Greece announced suspension of payments.

Meanwhile, Athens convened a meeting of the negotiating group with the creditors under the leadership of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras. According to sources, the purpose of the discussion was to define the budgetary measures that would replace the suspension of allowances for the people who receive low pensions and the taxation of electricity with the highest VAT rate and that would have the same financial result. In addition, the Greek cabinet must propose specific measures worth 500 million euro, which is the divide between Athens and the creditors.

The Greek government sources however deny that the creditors have given the government an ultimatum to present measures, arguing that Athens is ready to conclude an agreement any time. Despite the clear messages from the creditors that it is necessary to conclude an agreement at the expert level, they insist that the negotiations are political.

In addition, the same sources explain that by withdrawing its team from Brussels, the International Monetary Fund confirms and recognizes that the negotiations are taking place on another level. Their other explanation for what happened yesterday is that in this way the International Monetary Fund is pressing the European Commission and the European Central Bank to return to the right path of consultations at the expert level.

"The non-participation of the International Monetary Fund in the political negotiations is nothing more than putting pressure on all sides, the European Commission, the European Central Bank and Greece. As spokesman Jerry Rice stated, "The IMF never leaves the negotiating table" and if necessary it will return. Perhaps the International Monetary Fund believes that the best solution is to obtain the money it has provided so far and to leave the programme for Greece. Therefore, it is exerting pressure on all sides, and especially on Berlin, aiming at applying all tough policy measures in Greece in order to secure its money," state government sources in Athens.

Having shifted the responsibility for the suspension of negotiations to the creditors, they insist that the government is continuing them on the basis of the agreement it has proposed, which includes the following:

- low budget surpluses, mostly in 2015 and 2016,

- no salary and pension cuts,

- sovereign debt restructuring,

- dynamic investment programme.

In the late afternoon it became clear that, during a telephone conversation after the meeting, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker decided that the representatives of Alexis Tsipras would leave for Brussels tomorrow to meet with the representatives of the heads of the credit institutions, as Athens would be ready to present its proposals that are expected today. Once again, the government officials stressed that Greece and the creditors were closer than ever to striking a deal.

 

 

Tags: PoliticsGreece and creditorsState defaultNegotiations for agreementTelephone conversation between Alexis Tsipras and Jean-Claude JunckerGreek proposals
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