Bookmakers are predicting victory for the positive vote in the Greek referendum on Sunday.
The odds in favour of the ‘yes’ vote are clearly lower than those in favour of the ‘no’ vote. In particular, the probability of the positive vote winning was 66% yesterday afternoon and that in favour of the negative was 33%.
In addition, the three big companies in the sector have estimated almost identical ratios. In particular, Ladbrokes odds ratio is 1.33 for the ‘yes’ vote and 3.00 for the ‘no’. William Hill suggests 1.40 for the ‘yes’ and 2.75 for the ‘no’, the estimates of Betfair being the same, reports the newspaper Kathimerini.
It is noteworthy that the betting odds on Grexit in 2015 were in the same range and the average rate in favour of the option that there would be no Grexit was 1.36 compared to 3.25 in favour of the probability of Greece leaving the euro zone this year. A significant fact is that, according to the betting website http://www.oddschecker.com, yesterday the likelihood of Greece staying in the euro zone increased and that of Grexit decreased.
In addition, Greece's exit from the euro zone was more likely on Sunday than yesterday as the bets were in the range of 2.00, i.e. the likelihood of such an event happening was about 50%.