Photo: oxtapus.wordpress.com
The Ministry of Finance is leading a fierce battle, to separate the sixth tranche of the old financial assistance from the negotiations about the new aid contract agreed in late October this year, which was in the eye of the Greek cyclone. Torn by internal political games Greece risks not only remaining without the financial assistance of eight billion Euros, which was to be paid in September of this year, but even to be expelled from the eurozone and the European Union.
Brussels and even Washington have lost all patience with the game of nerves, which is being played between Prime Minister George Papandreou (PASOK) and the opposition leader Antonis Samaras (New Democracy). The governing Socialist is clinging to the Prime Minister's chair and is not letting it go to the amazement of the whole world, while his right opponent is stuck like a donkey on a bridge, wants to become the new Prime Minister of Greece and precludes the possibility for a coalition government.
Amid all this political cacophony, Greece still has serious financial problems and the need for immediate reforms is greater than ever, which have now have remained in the background. Firstly, according to the country's constitution, by the end of next week the first reading of the 2012 budget draft should be introduced in parliament. During the same period the second contract for financial assistance was scheduled to be ratified, which right now sounds like science fiction, provided that no one knows what government Greece will wake up to.
Meanwhile, the adoption of regulations to implement the measures of the mid-term recovery plan had to continue, which is seriously behind schedule, according to the action plan. It states that official letters should already have been sent to public officials who fall under the impact of the state reserve, there should already have been dozens of closed state-owned enterprises, which have proven to be bankrupt; some disability pensions should already have been reviewed and reduced and also the lists of free prescription drugs, given by social insurance funds, should already have been drastically cut.
The old saying that "the fish goes bad from the head" describes very clearly how long the political "elite" of Greece fights for the bone, which is now the position of Prime Minister, while tax revenues continue to decline rather than increase as expected from the initial economic plan for 2011. Among other anomalies in the fiscal consolidation and structural reforms, the ultimate goal to lower the budget deficit to around 9 percent of GDP by December of this year, is unattainable. In the best case scenario, in 2012 this will lead to the introduction of new emergency and many more drastic measures than those known so far, and in the worst case scenario, Greeks will be introduced to the new Drachma in 2012.
Banks and businesses are frozen in anticipation of the political developments in the country and foreign business partners now want assurances from their Greek colleagues that their obligations will be paid in Euros. Confusion has arisen in companies which meet all the standards for funding from the European funds and the anticipated grants from the National Strategic Framework for Development (NSFD) and the activities of the advisory group on economic growth of Reichenbach from the European Commission are now actually meaningless.
Until, and if, money comes from the sixth tranche, Greece will rely on revenues from VAT, and from the maximum it can take from extra taxes on monthly income and real estate. Other funds are expected to come from the payment of licenses of the state lottery OPAP, and from the issue of semi-government bonds, which are expected to gather around four billion Euros. The first issue is expected next week at around two billion euros with an expected high rate. Meanwhile, the government has started using one billion Euros from the provision of the Financial Stability Fund, which was initially only for the banks in case of capital shortage due to the economic crisis.