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French "Plan B" for coordinated disintegration of the euro area

10 November 2011 / 15:11:40  GRReporter
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Alternative plans to save the euro and "its weak points" such as Greece are on the negotiating table again. An article in the French newspaper Le Monde notes that "Plan B" could include: separation of the euro area into ​​north and south, massive issuance of euro from the European Central Bank and introduction of national currencies for internal use by the members of the divided euro area. Such plans "could prevent the collapse of the euro area," stated for Le Monde Jean-Pierre Vesperini, a member of the French Council of Economic Analysis (CAE), which acts as a special adviser to the French President. This Council and other economists believe that "Plan B" should contain the following principles:

1. Radical change in monetary policy

"The best solution to rescue the euro is for the European Central Bank to convert all government debts into euro, i.e. the European Central Bank should begin to "mint" money and take the payment of all maturing bonds of national governments," explains Vesperini. "This will significantly reduce the exchange rate of the euro with the goal of reaching around 1.15 USD, which would allow emergence from the crisis," added the French economist. As the newspaper notes, this involves a tactic to which the European Central Bank has resorted in only a very few cases, at least 10 times less than the Federal Reserve System of the USA.

Vesperini’s colleague, Antoine Brunet believes that it is not enough to reduce interest rates and convert the government debt into euro. "A large-scale intervention of the European Central Bank in foreign exchange markets is necessary, following the example of the Swiss National Bank,"  he explains, adding that to make all this happen, a common European economic governance is needed, which will authorize the European Central Bank to undertake a 180 degree change in its monetary policy.

2. Euro of the north and south

This change in monetary policy will undoubtedly put an end to the economic and financial crisis in the eurozone, according to experts from CAE. But there will be another major issue that will need to be addressed: economic differences between eurozone countries. For this purpose, the euro has to change from a "single currency" to a "common currency", since the adoption of a single currency requires the "federalization" of Europe like the USA or Germany in order to have tools to transfer funds from one federal state to another.

CAE researchers stress that such a decision would be the euro bonds issued by the European Central Bank, a "proposal fiercely resisted by Berlin."

Alain Grandjean says, "The euro today is operating as the currency of Germany. This tactic is not effective for Europe. Convergence in terms of competitiveness of the North Rhine and the Peloponnese through fiscal constraints and reduction of wages is a method that has been exhausted. To restore the balance between the economies these countries should introduce currencies of different power. This is something that involves dividing the euro into euro of the north and euro of the south."

It should be noted that Vesperini said that France in no case should introduce the euro of the north.

3. From "single" to "common" currency

Both types of euros will be subjected to relentless speculative attacks by international currency markets. The euro of the south will be subject to suffocating pressure and will undergo forced devaluation, and state and private companies in countries that adopt it will be threatened with suspension of payments. To prevent the negative consequences of the change, economists propose introducing a new system for determining the interest rates in the euro area.

"Given the enormous differences in competitiveness between Italy, Portugal and the countries of the north, a system of stable and fixed exchange rates between Member States will have to be introduced in the euro area. This implies the return of national currencies controlled by each state, and concurrent use of an "inside" and a "foreign" currency."

That is, member states will have their national currencies, and at the same time a common currency (one for the northern and another for the southern member states), which will resemble the old European Currency Unit (ΕCU). They will determine the rate of their national currencies against the "common" currency.

"Obviously, the common currency will not be used in everyday life, but it will allow progressive balancing of the economies without driving national governments to undertake the massive devaluation of the new drachma, the new escudo, the new peseta, etc.," state the experts.

Naturally, economists’ proposals raise a number of questions. And they remain unanswered because CAE experts do not enter into technical details in terms of the foreign trade in the "dual" euro area, the foreign relations, the possibility of devaluation of national currencies against the euro of the south, and of the euro of the south against the euro of the north... They themselves admit that there are many extremely important issues that need to be resolved and many options to be regulated.

Tags: Council of Economic AnalysisCAEPlan BDisintegration of the euro area
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