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French-German ultimatum to Papandreou: Referendum for or against the euro

02 November 2011 / 21:11:02  GRReporter
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Lenders are pressing the Greek government to speed up the preparation and to hold the referendum as soon as possible. Many Greek media read that the cabinet has discussed December 4 or 11 as possible dates. All this, of course, provided that the vote of confidence on Friday night would go smoothly.

According to the same sources, there might be another meeting of the Council of Ministers next week, when the ministers would determine the question to which Greek citizens will have to answer. In parallel, there should be a meeting of the parliamentary plenum to approve the referendum for which 151 votes are required.

It is not clear so far whether the vote of the state budget for 2012 will be held before or after the referendum to ratify the new contract for the Greek loan.

Government fears are directed to the very real possibility that the sixth tranche of the economic aid to Greece might not be paid in November. This would mean that civil servants and pensioners would be invited to vote without having received salaries and pensions. According to some sources, the ministers of transport and health Andreas Loverdos and Yannis Ragousis have put the question during last night's marathon meeting of the Council of Ministers in order to get George Papandreou’s answer that the tranche would be received before the referendum.

Only the future will show whether this claim of the Greek prime minister will be confirmed. In any case, today, German Chancellor Angela Merkel denied his assurances last night that European leaders were familiar with his initiative to hold a referendum. Only a few hours ago, she set the tone of what is expected to happen during the meeting with George Papandreou in Cannes. "We respect all people. And Turks and Greeks, when they behave in a logical way," she remarked as a joke during the celebration of the 50th anniversary of the signing of the agreement of "invited workers" from Turkey. Angela Merkel reiterated the request for the implementation of the plan for the rescue of Greece, which was adopted at the summit in Brussels last week. "We have agreed on a program for Greece for the next weeks. Clarification is necessary on its implementation. This will be the topic of our conversations," she said.

In its article titled "Sarkozy's conditions for Papandreou," the French daily Le Monde suggests how the meeting in Cannes would be held.

"Now there is nothing to negotiate. The Greeks will not get a single euro while they do not adopt the reform program, as required by the International Monetary Fund. The referendum must be held as soon as possible and to ask the Greeks the only possible question: Do they want to stay in the eurozone?"

According to the publication, before setting his specific conditions, Nicolas Sarkozy has coordinated them with Angela Merkel, the head of the International Monetary Fund Christine Lagarde and the representatives of the European Council, the European Commission, Eurogroup and the European Central Bank. All they will call George Papandreou to his responsibilities. The final countdown has begun: According to the French Ministry of Economy, Greece has money only until December.

According to Le Monde, European leaders would prefer that the Greek prime minister had followed the example of his Spanish counterpart Jose Luis Zapatero, who had the courage to declare early elections and take stringent economic measures. The newspaper as well as the economic edition Les Echos describes two scenarios of the meeting between Nicolas Sarkozy, Angela Merkel and Greek Prime Minister. The dilemma in them both is the same: in or outside the eurozone.

Under the first scenario, if George Papandreou accepted the referendum question to be Greece’s staying in the eurozone, the two leaders would agree to hold it. However, they would explain that Greece would not receive any funds, even the agreed sixth tranche of the economic aid to the date of the referendum. Les Echos states that ultimately, they would argue that Ireland and Portugal had not made such a fuss.

If the Greek prime minister insisted on the referendum anyway, the two leaders would explain that this should happen no later than December. Merkel and Sarkozy are worried that the possible delay of the events in Athens might deepen the debt crisis and it might spread to Italy and Spain.

The second scenario in practice involves any unexpected development implied by the Greek misadventure in Europe. This could be a refusal to the call for referendum at all or postponing it in January 2012. In this case, Greece would be left without any resources; it would default and leave the eurozone. "Of course, we cannot forbid the Greeks to commit suicide," told Le Monde a senior government official, requesting anonymity.

Tags: PoliticsPapandreouMerkelSarkozyCannesReferendumSixth trancheEurozone
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