Galery

1

Anastasia Balezdrova

Nineteen days after their beginning, the protests in Bulgaria are not subsiding despite the contrary claims of the government and commentators. Nobody can predict how they will end but the government in Sofia is certainly feeling uncomfortable and pressured.

This is evident from the discussion about the events of recent weeks which has started in the European Parliament too.

Political analyst Vladimir Shopov is talking with GRReporter about the changes resulting from the protests and their implications in the long term.

How has the situation in Bulgaria gone so far as to be considered by the European Parliament and how would you comment on the votes for the parties?

The occasion for a discussion on Bulgaria actually dates back to several months ago, when there were attempts to schedule it for September but the events of the past few weeks have obviously proved a sufficient argument for it to take place at this moment.

I am a little surprised by the position of the European Green Party which often sides with the Socialists. But it is evident that the more comprehensive information about the government of Bulgaria which is reaching the European institutions is starting to influence even those political groups in the European Parliament which are closer to Oresharski’s office.

From this point of view, I think that there is a gradual accumulation of understanding of what is actually happening in Bulgaria. I would say that, for a certain period of time, the information reached there but was, in a sense, filtered by the Secretariat of the Party of European Socialists (PES). However, a growing number of PES’ member parties are realizing the dependence of this cabinet on Volen Siderov and I think that, for many of them, such a situation would be unacceptable, although they are in a difficult position because Sergey Stanishev is currently Secretary of the PES. In addition, we know that the European Parliament elections will take place after 10 months and it is certain that they are reluctant to face additional difficulties in terms of these elections.

Do you think that the European future of Bulgaria is threatened in some way?

I do not want to imagine that this is a realistic threat, although all have some concerns that there is a battle in the hearts and souls of the present government between its historic instinct and the present political realities. That is why many people are worried about what will prevail. Moreover, in recent days, we have seen some downright retrograde reactions to the current situation. I mean the statement of chairman of parliament Michail Mikov as well as the attitudes and language towards the protesters in Bulgaria.

It is more interesting to me that, in just one month, the government has been able, albeit imperceptibly due to its domestic helplessness, to almost raze to the ground the opportunities for a normal European policy. This is because José Manuel Barroso had received the new Prime Minister with several messages during his first visit. The first was that, for them, the voice of the people in the streets of the country was a much more accurate and legitimate assessment of its condition. He also met him, stating that the monitoring of the country will continue and that the Schengen membership cannot even be discussed within this context. Then, two ministers in this cabinet made several blunders. Including that over the past two days, we have witnessed a direct misleading of the public opinion with the statement of the Minister of Economy, namely that Bulgaria is entering a regime of a direct payment of fines in a criminal procedure.

The greatest danger for me now is the paralysis of the European policy by this cabinet from now on and any additional stultification of Bulgaria’s membership. I do not want to think about categories that go beyond that.

How long will this government survive in your opinion?

This remains the most difficult question. It is because there are no circumstances that are directly pressing it. Indeed, this is not the scale of protests which we are accustomed to associate with the fall of governments from a historical point of view. The severity of the economic crisis and the frustration which were present in 1997 are absent today and the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) is not in that international isolation in which it was at that time.

The life of this cabinet is very unstable due to the extremely severe paralysis into which it has fallen; it is due to the simple reason that, on the one hand, it is unable to adequately respond to the present social environment in the country. It is unable to construct elementary governmental stability and normality both in its composition and in parliament. Thirdly, a configuration in which Volen Siderov is the key to the functioning of the parliament makes pointless any desire or pretention of a meaningful governmental perspective.

These, in my opinion, are the factors that will undermine the stability of this cabinet. Moreover, whether we will see the fall of the government within the context of the current wave of protests or the following one early in the autumn or later, their main meaning goes beyond the political results that they can achieve in the short term. Because their actual meaning is to strengthen this culture of intolerance to the resounding government outrages, increase the readiness for civil activities on a daily basis and to be persistent as regards various topics related to the development of the country. All governments ruling in such environment, like this one, will be unstable.