photo: karchilaki.com
Two days before the early parliamentary elections in Greece the lead of the SYRIZA Radical Left seems more than secure. The big challenge for the left now is to muster a full majority in parliament, which would give them a chance to form a cabinet on their own. According to all pundits, this entirely hinges on the number of small parties, which will make it into the next Greek Parliament.
Yesterday, the European Central bank decided to buy out sovereign bonds of Eurozone member states. For Greece, purchasing its bonds is coupled with the successful completion of its bailout progress report and the signing of a new agreement. The adamant and unyielding position SYRIZA has taken, for the time being at least, on starting negotiations with the creditors ‘from scratch’ exacerbates the anxieties among constituents, many of whom are concerned that Greece’s finding itself out of the Eurozone is not excluded.
GRReporter talked with writer Petros Papasarandopoulos about the motivation of Greek voters, the likely outcome of the vote and its possible consequences.
Mr Papasarandopoulos, what kind of reasoning will motivate Greek voters?
There isn't anything like a single shared motive. Some will vote to prevent any change from happening; others – to change a lot of things; still others – hoping to trigger changes for the rest rather than for themselves. Having said that, there is a stunning detail about those who will vote for SYRIZA. Quite a large portion of them will vote on the basis of their conviction that the party won't make good on its election promises.
Which parties, do think, will be elected into the next parliament?
Most likely, the next parliament will represent six parties. Apart from New Democracy and SYRIZA, among them will be PASOK/Democratic Party, Potami, Golden Dawn and the Communist Party of Greece. The Independent Greeks might also pass the 3% threshold and only just sneak into Parliament.
SYRIZA leads by all polls. Do you believe that the election result will allow the party to form a cabinet of its own? Which parties could join a coalition with the radical left?
The polls do not exclude a full majority for SYRIZA. If the results prove otherwise, SYRIZA’s potential partners in government are PASOK/Democratic Party and Potami. The Independent Greeks are also likely to coalesce with SYRIZA if they find their way into Parliament.
The probability of GREXIT is still an issue discussed by world media and commentators. How justified are the concerns that Greece may be frozen out of the Eurozone?
I think GREXIT is a highly probable development. This is a nightmarish scenario for the country, which becomes more likely by the day. I'm perplexed by the lightheartedness of most Greeks who seem to believe that some sort of deus ex machina will come down and shield us from the dire consequences.
With the election date coming closer, a trend has emerged among leading Greek media to support SYRIZA. How would you explain that? Has something similar taken place at previous elections?
We have seen similar about-turns at a number of elections in the past. They give us an indication of the ill-health of Greek media as well as of the incestuous connections between them and the powers that be.
What is your forecast of Sunday's vote?
I think one cannot doubt that SYRIZA is going to win by at least 4-5%. Winning a full majority by them is also likely. The battle for the third place in Parliament is going to be fought until the last second.