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Yesterday afternoon, the Greek newspaper To Vima published on its website a text describing the agreement proposal of the European Commission. Both the Commission and the Greek government refuted the news even before it was disseminated. However, the discussions on the news continue, being quite violent on social media in some cases. Therefore, it is worth looking at the text, states journalist Petros Lazos in his analysis for capital.gr.

In the first place, the publication in To Vima is about measures worth 5 billion euro that are to be voted by June. In return, 5 billion euro will be paid to meet the liquidity requirements of the Greek state as follows:

- 1.8 billion euro - the remaining funds that the euro zone must repay as a last tranche.

- 1.9 billion euro - the profit of the European Central Bank from the Greek bonds purchased through the Securities Market Programme.

- 1.2 billion euro - also profits that the European Central Bank will receive after the payment of the respective bonds in July and August, if paid, naturally.

I.e., according to the publication, the funds that are subject to immediate payment are to the amount of 3.7 billion euro. However, there is one problem here, namely how realistic (and true) that proposal is. To clarify the scale of the problem, it should be recalled that 6.6 billion euro plus interests amounting to 690 million euro are required only to pay the holders of Greek government bonds in July and August. And another 194 million euro in August. Therefore, the sum of the total expense is nearly 7.5 billion euro. By adding to it the amount of more than 2.2 billion euro due to the International Monetary Fund in June, it turns out that Greece’s foreign debt will amount to a total of 9.8 billion euro by the end of August but in the case that the forecast of the International Monetary Fund for a primary deficit of 1.7-2.1% is wrong. If it is not, the required amount will increase well above 10 billion euro. In this situation, what expenses can be covered with this 3.7 billion euro? The amount will not be enough even for the first payment to the European Central Bank on 20 July.

But the problem is not just in the figures. There is no way for many of the issues described in the so-called proposal to be accepted by the International Monetary Fund (e.g. the postponement of social security reform). No way. Because the necessary conditions for the participation of the International Monetary Fund are the following:

1. Debt sustainability and

2. Secured financing for the next 12 months.

The publication makes it clear that the Fund might not participate. However, this is politically impossible in the euro zone. Rumour has it that German lawmakers had set this condition to Wolfgang Schaeuble in order to vote the extension of the bailout programme by the end of June. However, granting the 1.9 billion euro profit of the European Central Bank requires the votes of the German parliament and of two more parliaments at least.

One could point out many weak points in the so-called proposal but there is no need to prove obvious things. This text has nothing to do with Brussels, they have never heard of it there. It is the product of Greek planning, design and origin. It is not clear who has written it and trying to find the author makes no sense. However, it is easy to assume that its source comes from the Greek government. And from those who have only a vague idea of ​​the negotiations. Nothing else can explain the elementary errors in the figures.

In every case, this text is nothing but another episode of the series entitled "Agreement is coming." We have been watching the series for four months already. Even if that wretched agreement was walking, not only would it have arrived but the end of its implementation would also be approaching. These games should now stop. And someone should inform the Greek people of what is actually happening, because, as a friend says, one can hear the helicopter engines warming up.