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Anastasia Balezdrova

The efforts to counteract the crisis in Libya are focused on finding a political solution. At the same time, Islamist groups, including al-Qaida are trying to push the view that air raids on Libya are nothing more than "modern crusades." For these and other issues related to the riots that began in the Maghreb countries and reached the Arabian Peninsula, GRReporter consulted Antonia Dimou, head of the Middle East and Persian Gulf department at the Institute for Security and Defence Analysis. She is an associate at the Center for Strategic Studies (CSS) at the University of Jordan and the Center for Middle East Development (CMED) at the University of California.

What is your assessment on the developments of the military operations against Libya? Do you think that the West intends to proceed with land operations?

First, I would like to underline that the situation in Libya today is a major challenge for the international coalition, especially after the imposition of the no-fly zone over the Arab country. Specifically, the major challenge is related to the strategy that the international coalition headed by France, the UK and the US, needs to implement towards Libya. Realistically, there are three distinctive strategic choices: The first choice revolves around the marginalization of the international coalition, the second focuses on land military operations and the third on finding a political solution.

In case the West decides to marginalize its presence, this would mean a tacit recognition of the authority of the Qaddafi regime and consequently the suppression of the rebels.

If the West decides to intervene actively in the military field with the conduct of operations via land on Libya, then it will precisely get itself involved in the middle of hostilities, perhaps for a long period of time and with potentially significant casualties among the civilian population. Moreover, the possibility of land operations by the West can potentially provide the basis upon which Islamist organizations such as al-Qaida may carry out holy war around the world (global jihad), whatever that means. It is not mere coincidence that al-Qaeda has in recent weeks issued a number of statements about the events in Libya arguing that the transitional government in Benghazi and the international air strikes are part of a wider conspiracy against Islam while denouncing the Western air operations as "modern crusade".

Thus, a Western operation via land on Libya runs the risk of becoming a military Waterloo for Western countries since there is possibility for long-time involvement on their part in military operations that may lead to casualties, as evidenced in the cases of Iraq and Afghanistan. At the same time, a land operation on Libya will undoubtedly serve the interests of Islamist groups like al-Qaida, which sees military presence of the West in Libya as an opportunity to position itself as an attractive alternative to the Qaddafi regime, and to the pro-Western democracy proposed by the transitional government in Benghazi.
 
The third choice relates to the definition of an exit strategy and a near-term withdrawal. And this because the experience of the West with no-fly zones over countries such as Iraq has shown that such measures in the absence of any political solution can complicate the situation. The case of Iraq is indicative, where the imposition of a no-fly zone over the Kurdish areas in northern Iraq and the Shiite regions in the south of the country, without a prior mandate from the UN Security Council, has enjoyed limited success between 1991 and 2003. Under the protection of US forces, that destroyed the anti-aircraft defence of Iraq and the military bases on the ground, the Kurds established de facto autonomy in northern Iraq - at this moment this development favours the plans of the West. At the same time, the southern part of the country continues to be under a state of complete lack of security and daily armed clashes, taking for granted the entry of militants of Islamist organizations such as al-Qaeda.

My personal estimate is that finding a political solution to the case of Libya is a strategic choice for any withdrawal of the West to happen. On the contrary, the prolongation of the current situation with regards to the no-fly zone, let alone the conduct of land operations will in no case serve the interests of the West not only in Libya, but in the whole region.