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Political barometer of Public Issue: A parliament with 9 parties, without a ruling majority

04 March 2012 / 18:03:53  GRReporter
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The political barometer of the pollster Public Issue, published on Sunday, expects that nine parties will join the next Parliament, without, however, having ruling majority, a further deterioration in the positions of the major parties, and high rates for the leftist party.

First among the preferences of voters remains New Democracy with 28% despite the fact that it has lost 3%.

Then follow the democratic leftist party with 16%, the left coalition SYRIZA with 12%, the communist party KKE and PASOK with 11%, the far-right LAOS, the newly founded party of the former Prime Minister of New Democracy Panos Kamenos "Independent Greeks" and the Environmentalists with 4%, and finally the nationalist Party "Golden Dawn" with 3.5%. Outside the parliament will remain the Democratic Alliance of Dora Bakoyannis, and the percentage of the people who have stated they would not vote reached 27.5%.

52% of the Greeks do not agree with the passage of the new memorandum, and 38% support it. 46% of the respondents believe that is possible for Greece to declare a formal bankruptcy, while 10% believe that the country is already bankrupt.

Furthermore, the disapproval of the coalition government reached 87%. As the most popular leader is seen Fotis Kivelis. After him follow Yannis Dimaras, although his movement "Arma politon" gets only 1% of the votes, Alexis Tsipas, Antonis Samaras, Aleka Papariga, Dora Bakoyannis, George Karadzaferis and last is the former Prime Minister George Papandreou. A positive opinion about Lucas Papadimos have 45% of the respondents.

Another pollster - Metron Analysis - registered a slight improvement of the climete, which mainly consists of the following:

The view that ultimately the country will avoid bankruptcy is restored, and it is supported by 48% of respondents, a rate which two weeks ago was 41% (an increase of 7%). At the same time the percentage of those who think the country will avoid bankruptcy decreases from 52% to 45%.

The percentage of those who think it would be better for the country to return to the drachma has decreased from 21% (two weeks ago) at 16%.

The percentage of people who consider that this year will be worse in economic terms than the last year, has decreased from 90% to 83%.

The index of social trust (socialtrustindex) increases. Its average value is now 5.0 from 4.8 on a scale from 0 to 10. Public confidence is a key variable and it is directly related to the possibility of economic recovery, as demonstrated in a number of studies.

These data show a slight improvement in the climate which, however, is very fragile and in no circumstances should be regarded as a sign of a final change and an exit from the frames of pessimism that has been dominant in recent years in the country. And this is mainly because the improvement in social climate is not accompanied by improved in the political climate, which remains at very negative levels. The index of political trust (politicaltrustindex) not only does not improve but continues its course down (an average value of 2.2 from 2.3 on a scale from 0 to 10).

The analysis of data from the opinion polls shows a fragmented political landscape whose arrangement is a necessary condition for the exiting of the country from the crisis. Going to the polls is already desired by the majority (60% of the respondents, want elections to be held in April). And the new correlation of powers that will be formed will show whether the Greeks will leave behind the political crisis, or vice versa, it will worsen and lead to the conduct of constant elections and to the establishment of a government of technocrats, completely independent from the party system.

Tags: political barometer poll Public Issue Μetron Αnalysis
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