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The recent polls show that almost half of the undecided voters (48%) come from the centre and centre-right political spectrum. And, therefore, this might affect the result of the elections. It is very unlikely, however, that ND manages to secure enough votes to form a government on its own, but PASOK and Potami could join a possible coalition government. Although ND’s chances for an electoral victory are limited, if it did manage to come in first, it would encounter less difficulties than Syriza - at least during the first exploratory mandate - in finding enough coalition partners among the smaller parties since the majority of them have adopted a less critical, even pro-austerity position towards the EU. An alleged ND-led government would continue working for the completion of the economic adjustment programme and would negotiate a new agreement with the international lenders on the subsequent programme to support a precautionary credit line (ECCL).

Scenario 4. No government is formed

Given the unlikelihood that Syriza or ND will win the majority necessary to form a government on their own and the difficulties of forming a coalition government with those parties that manage to pass the 3% threshold, it could also be the case that no government is formed and snap elections are called again. In this case, the negotiations with the EU and the IMF will have to wait, since the new Parliament will be required to elect a new President of the Hellenic Republic. A caretaker government would be appointed to conduct new elections, probably on February 5th. This government would participate in the scheduled EU meetings that are expected to deal with the Greek economic programme - namely, the Eurogroup meetings on January 26th and February 16th, and the European Council summit on February 12th - but it would not be able to conclude the negotiations with the troika representatives and international lenders. In this scenario, whereas the current Greek programme ends on March 1st, a final decision could only be agreed in late March, unless the new elections lead again to a new political deadlock.

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In short, at this late stage in the electoral process, one can conclude that while the flow of voters towards Syriza is increasing and seems irreversible with the passing of each day, the formation of a one-party majority government appears highly unlikely. Greece has to face a daunting series of challenges, beginning with the formation of a stable government. This new government should be capable of convincing people, not only in Greece but throughout Europe, that it has the capacity to effectively negotiate with its EU counterparts and to provide workable solutions to the growing crisis.

[1] Forecasts released last Sunday, 18 January 2015, predicted an even larger difference.

[2] KI.DI.SO was founded three weeks ago by former Prime Minister and president of PASOK, George Papandreou.

[3] The current electoral system in Greece combines a form of semi-proportional representation with a majority bonus (reinforced proportionality). In 2008, the relevant law was amended giving the leading party 50 extra seats. Of the 300 parliamentary seats, 250 are distributed proportionally between all the parties that reach the 3% nationwide electoral threshold. The remaining 50 seats go to the first party as a ‘bonus’. For Syriza to get an absolute majority on its own (151 seats), a vote of around 35% is required, provided that 13% of the parties remain outside of Parliament. The higher this percentage of parties registered outside of Parliament, the lower the rate - as long as the minimum threshold of 35% is achieved - needed for the first party to reach a comfortable absolute majority!

[4] The formation of a minority government in Greece is possible if two conditions are met: first, 61 MPs of the total of 300 MPs walk out on the vote (leaving a total of 239 deputies present) and second, 120 MPs of the new total of 239 present deputies should support (vote in favour of) this government. There is disagreement among constitutional law experts  as to whether this process applies only to government in the midst of office asking for a new vote of confidence or if it applies to a new government.

The article is reprinted from the Hellenic Foundation for Foreign and Defence Policy ELIAMEP.