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Anastasia Balezdrova

Since the beginning of the week preceding the early parliamentary elections on 25 January, a kind of clock has appeared on the official website of SYRIZA that is counting down the time "until the arrival of hope." Polls show that for more than 30% of voters, hope is represented by the radical left that is already preparing to take over the country.

At the same time the main directions of its policies remain a mystery because, despite the critical moment for Greece, SYRIZA has not yet put on the table its cards on vital issues for the country such as what their policy towards the creditors will be and how they will provide resources for the promised generous social policy in the country.

The elections and the consequences of the Sunday vote of the Greek electorate were the issues that GRReporter discussed with political scientist Plamen Tonchev.

What do you think the likely outcome of the elections will be?

All polls confirm the 3-4% lead of SYRIZA. However, I think that this last week before the elections will be crucial, because at least one million citizens are still undecided whom to support or whether to vote.

Another question is associated with the condition of the banks. For example, if there is a serious outflow of funds from deposit accounts, it can reinforce the fears of Greeks of a possible SYRIZA government and give some points in favour of New Democracy.

I would not exclude extreme circumstances associated with security and public order in the country. I mean events such as the arrest of one of the terrorists who led the group that was planning an attack in Antvert in Belgium. It is not known what things can emerge in connection with extremists, terrorists, Islamists, etc. Tension in the last week before the elections is rising and a collision is possible. These things are unpredictable but cannot be excluded.

Therefore, I am saying with reserve that SYRIZA is holding the lead but the last week before the elections will be decisive for the vote. There is much talk about how the other parties will rank and especially which one will be the third force among them. I do not exclude that this could be Golden Dawn. All polls indicate Potami as the third force but all analysts claim that Golden Dawn has a hidden vote. It may be at least 1%. For personal reasons these voters do not declare in the polls that they will support Golden Dawn but it is possible that they will vote precisely for it on Sunday. The difference between the four smaller parties (Potami, PASOK, Golden Dawn and the Communist Party of Greece) is very small. All have between 4% and 5%.

The Greek election system is organized so that Independent Greeks and the Movement of Democratic Socialists of George Papandreou in fact will determine the fate of SYRIZA. If these two parties do not cross the 3% threshold, SYRIZA will be close to an absolute majority of 151 seats.

This would be true if the polls confirmed it. What is typical of them in terms of the specific elections is that they are all highly unreliable.

What will determine the vote of Greek citizens?

I think the debates during the election campaign have two common denominators. The first is the upcoming negotiations on the restructuring of the Greek government debt, which currently amounts to 320 billion euro. The second is the signing of another agreement with the creditors, since it is clear that Greece is yet unable to cover alone its operating costs.

The irony and typical feature of these elections is that the majority of the citizens will vote, totally distrusting political parties. New Democracy supporters know that the successes on which Antonis Samaras is relying are largely fictitious. The supporters of SYRIZA are expectant that the radical left will not split with the European Union despite its hostile campaign rhetoric. I think the most meaningful and most constructive vote is in the centre, whereas the vote for the Communists and Golden Dawn is based rather on momentum and simply on the rejection of other alternatives.

I think these are the considerations of voters, at least in terms of the major parties that are likely to enter parliament.

What are the chances of SYRIZA forming a separate office?

I expect very serious internal problems within SYRIZA. Anyway, the party is a coalition of groups with very different views on a number of issues. These differences will inevitably lead to a split in SYRIZA, whether immediately after the elections or a little later.

What are the issues that will cause the split in the radical left?

Currency itself is a thorny issue for SYRIZA. There are voices in the leftist groups and the so-called Left Platform that question Greece’s remaining in the euro zone in general. The official position of SYRIZA is that the euro is the national currency of Greece but it is not so obvious in the internal party debate.

Another thorny issue relates to the conditions under which Greece has to sign another agreement with its creditors, whether this be a new memorandum, and under what conditions it should be accepted, or a gentlemen's agreement, which I personally do not consider possible. Therefore, there will be internal discord in SYRIZA.

Which are the parties that it could form a coalition government with?

The Communist Party and the ultra left Antarsia that are to the left of SYRIZA are opposition parties by definition and I do not believe that they will agree to participate in an office with SYRIZA or to become part of the government in general. I.e., talks with parties to the left of SYRIZA are pointless.

However, the parties that are to the right of it, willy-nilly, will have to consider participating in a government coalition. I mean PASOK, Potami and even New Democracy, although they are now exchanging quite harsh remarks. But this is something expected within the context of an election campaign.

It all depends on how many seats SYRIZA will obtain. But even if it obtains an absolute majority in parliament, it will be in its favour to find some partners that, if not for anything else, could serve as its alibi. SYRIZA will need it.

I would not dare to guess whether it could create a coalition, because it is quite isolated, among other things. Its rhetoric is so hostile to other parties that it itself is creating problems and cutting the bridges of partnership relations after the elections. The only certain thing is that it will have difficulties.

Is there a probability of new elections within a year?

I think that such a probability is not excluded, either a month after the elections on 25 January or later in the year. Everything will depend on the balance of political forces in parliament and the stability of the new cabinet. And it will be anything but stable.

It is important to look at the dates: the memorandum expires on 28 February and there are already talks about a possible 6-month extension by creditors, so that the new government has time for negotiations on a new agreement.

New elections in February will make the negotiations with creditors more difficult, if not impossible. I.e. there is a small probability of new elections immediately after these on Sunday. However, there is a great probability of them taking place later in, or at the end of, the year.

On what will it depend?

It will depend on whether SYRIZA will be able to form a stable government in conjunction with the inevitable split that I have already mentioned, and whether it will have a parliamentary majority.

Another option is for SYRIZA to split, and for the people of Panagiotis Lafazanis (leader of the Left Platform - author’s note) to leave the party and for its government to obtain the support of other parties.

In all cases, the government that SYRIZA will form after 10 days or two weeks will have no great future, because it will not be stable.

Is there a probability of SYRIZA failing to form a cabinet and of the exploratory mandate to form a government being submitted to the second party?

If we look at the percentages of the parties in the polls, New Democracy and Potami or New Democracy and PASOK will not have a parliamentary majority and will not be able to form a government. The possible government must be formed around SYRIZA. If it wins 145 or 151 seats, in no way will the other parties be able to form a government. In all cases, the next cabinet will involve SYRIZA. If the talks with the potential partners do not work, there will be new elections.

However, I believe that SYRIZA will not dare to take Greece to new elections, because all remember what happened to the double elections in 2012. It will hardly be able to win the new elections in February with an absolute majority. To the contrary, it may pay dearly for this.

Moreover, the creditors are so angry that they will simply not allow the country to end up in a new election period nor a new extension. At the same time, Greece will not benefit from this, because it will remain without funding. SYRIZA will assume a huge, historic responsibility and I think it will not risk that.

I guess it would rather be able to form a provisional government, which it could call whatever it wants, a government with a special mission, etc., in order to sign a new agreement with the creditors and hold new elections later in the year. However, it is not in its favour to put Greece into an adventure with new elections in February.

Are the fears of Grexit grounded?

It is possible. And SYRIZA should not take that risk in order to avoid a similar "accident" because it would assume responsibility for it.

The incredible statements that we hear from various members of SYRIZA every day make it clear that not all are aware of this. But I think that at least the main group around leader Alexis Tsipras understands this.

The consequences of such an event will be felt worldwide because the euro is a global currency. Whether there will be Grexit or not, a severe banking crisis in Greece in the coming months seems almost certain. It is not excluded that the events of Cyprus at the beginning of 2013 will reoccur, i.e. the limited access to deposits and the severe lack of liquidity in the market.

In this case, the new cabinet will have two choices: either to borrow from the open market at very high interest rates or to sign very fast and very urgently a new agreement with the creditors in order to be under the protection of the European Central Bank.

I do not want to think what might happen if Greece would leave the euro zone, nor to imagine what the consequences would be.

What are the main sectors that a potential SYRIZA government would try to change and what would the changes be (economics, public sector, police, foreign policy)?
 
A few days ago, I visited the official website of SYRIZA. A lot of documents on it are presented in the form of a debate in which citizens can discuss how to shape the new policy of SYRIZA as a government.

There are amazing fables but they are indicative of the tone and rhetoric. These documents make clear almost nothing. I think that SYRIZA will improvise according to the situation in which it will end up.

In the field of economy, the possible SYRIZA government, which is our working hypothesis, will inevitably face the ruthless reality and the lack of resources for its ambitious social policy. This is one of the things that will contribute to the differences and the split within the party.

It will certainly have a new tax policy, for example with a higher ratio on the large property.

It is one of the main campaign promises, despite the vagueness with regard to the threshold from which the increase of the ratio will start. I do not think anyone can say what can be expected in the field of economy from a SYRIZA government. They themselves do not know.

On the other hand, I do not expect a radical change in the management of the army and police, despite the opposite statements by members and candidate - members of the party. Firstly, this is because unarmed police sounds like an anecdote. Secondly, as we are seeing, the danger of acts of extremists, terrorists and extreme Islamists is rising and I do not think that even a government of SYRIZA will allow itself to disarm the police and army.

We must not forget the problem of local terrorism towards which the position of SYRIZA is "strange", to put it mildly.

This is so, but when they come to power, public order will be their responsibility and I do not think they can do something revolutionary. Moreover, a few days ago, Alexis Tsipras said he will not cut the resources for the Ministry of Defence.

Various pompous things are usually said before elections but I think that realism in their policy will be much more pronounced than it is now. I expect them to make changes in the leading cadres, which is totally logical.

They will not have money for new and mass appointments in the public sector, as they are promising but if they remain in power, there may be some optimization. Actually, this is not so difficult, because the condition of the public sector is so bad that it can only improve. It can hardly worsen. In fact, if I expect something positive from SYRIZA, it is precisely in this direction.

In the area of foreign policy and because the ideology of SYRIZA is such, I think we will see experiments such as contacts with the BRICS countries, namely Brazil, Russia, India, China, more as opposed to the European Union and NATO in view of the tough negotiations that they will have with the European partners. Generally, I do not expect a change in the European direction as a leading factor in the foreign policy of Greece.