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Anastasia Balezdrova

Since the beginning of the week preceding the early parliamentary elections on 25 January, a kind of clock has appeared on the official website of SYRIZA that is counting down the time "until the arrival of hope." Polls show that for more than 30% of voters, hope is represented by the radical left that is already preparing to take over the country.

At the same time the main directions of its policies remain a mystery because, despite the critical moment for Greece, SYRIZA has not yet put on the table its cards on vital issues for the country such as what their policy towards the creditors will be and how they will provide resources for the promised generous social policy in the country.

The elections and the consequences of the Sunday vote of the Greek electorate were the issues that GRReporter discussed with political scientist Plamen Tonchev.

What do you think the likely outcome of the elections will be?

All polls confirm the 3-4% lead of SYRIZA. However, I think that this last week before the elections will be crucial, because at least one million citizens are still undecided whom to support or whether to vote.

Another question is associated with the condition of the banks. For example, if there is a serious outflow of funds from deposit accounts, it can reinforce the fears of Greeks of a possible SYRIZA government and give some points in favour of New Democracy.

I would not exclude extreme circumstances associated with security and public order in the country. I mean events such as the arrest of one of the terrorists who led the group that was planning an attack in Antvert in Belgium. It is not known what things can emerge in connection with extremists, terrorists, Islamists, etc. Tension in the last week before the elections is rising and a collision is possible. These things are unpredictable but cannot be excluded.

Therefore, I am saying with reserve that SYRIZA is holding the lead but the last week before the elections will be decisive for the vote. There is much talk about how the other parties will rank and especially which one will be the third force among them. I do not exclude that this could be Golden Dawn. All polls indicate Potami as the third force but all analysts claim that Golden Dawn has a hidden vote. It may be at least 1%. For personal reasons these voters do not declare in the polls that they will support Golden Dawn but it is possible that they will vote precisely for it on Sunday. The difference between the four smaller parties (Potami, PASOK, Golden Dawn and the Communist Party of Greece) is very small. All have between 4% and 5%.

The Greek election system is organized so that Independent Greeks and the Movement of Democratic Socialists of George Papandreou in fact will determine the fate of SYRIZA. If these two parties do not cross the 3% threshold, SYRIZA will be close to an absolute majority of 151 seats.

This would be true if the polls confirmed it. What is typical of them in terms of the specific elections is that they are all highly unreliable.

What will determine the vote of Greek citizens?

I think the debates during the election campaign have two common denominators. The first is the upcoming negotiations on the restructuring of the Greek government debt, which currently amounts to 320 billion euro. The second is the signing of another agreement with the creditors, since it is clear that Greece is yet unable to cover alone its operating costs.

The irony and typical feature of these elections is that the majority of the citizens will vote, totally distrusting political parties. New Democracy supporters know that the successes on which Antonis Samaras is relying are largely fictitious. The supporters of SYRIZA are expectant that the radical left will not split with the European Union despite its hostile campaign rhetoric. I think the most meaningful and most constructive vote is in the centre, whereas the vote for the Communists and Golden Dawn is based rather on momentum and simply on the rejection of other alternatives.

I think these are the considerations of voters, at least in terms of the major parties that are likely to enter parliament.

What are the chances of SYRIZA forming a separate office?

I expect very serious internal problems within SYRIZA. Anyway, the party is a coalition of groups with very different views on a number of issues. These differences will inevitably lead to a split in SYRIZA, whether immediately after the elections or a little later.

What are the issues that will cause the split in the radical left?

Currency itself is a thorny issue for SYRIZA. There are voices in the leftist groups and the so-called Left Platform that question Greece’s remaining in the euro zone in general. The official position of SYRIZA is that the euro is the national currency of Greece but it is not so obvious in the internal party debate.

Another thorny issue relates to the conditions under which Greece has to sign another agreement with its creditors, whether this be a new memorandum, and under what conditions it should be accepted, or a gentlemen's agreement, which I personally do not consider possible. Therefore, there will be internal discord in SYRIZA.

Which are the parties that it could form a coalition government with?