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The latest polls commissioned by iefimerida.gr and conducted by RASS in the period 29-31 October 2014 among 1,002 voters from all over Greece show 5.3% precedence of SYRIZA over New Democracy and 7 parties in Parliament.

Tsipras strikes fear, Samaras does not inspire confidence
 
Although the radical left SYRIZA party has 5.3% precedence and is pointed out as the clear winner in the elections, its leader Alexis Tsipras is met with distrust and the probability of him becoming the next Prime Minister strikes fear in more than 4 out of 10 Greeks (specifically 43.5%) and inspires hope in 3 out of 10 voters (28.9%).

At the same time, citizens disapprove of the enthusiastic comments by current Prime Minister Antonis Samaras on a zero fiscal deficit, the release of Greece from the International Monetary Fund and the settlement of the issue of bad loans. They believe that this is due either to the levying of additional taxes or to Samaras’ desire to compete with SYRIZA.

Estimated percentages of the parties

SYRIZA (26.4%)

New Democracy (21.1%)

To Potami (5.8%)

Communist Party of Greece (5.4%)

Golden Dawn (5.1%)

PASOK (4.1%)

Independent Greeks (3.0%)

In addition, however, SYRIZA has the "psychological advantage" of the probable winner since more than 7 out of 10 Greeks (or 72.2%) believe that if elections were held today, the radical left party would win them.

Economy

The situation of the Greek economy is deteriorating as 65.5% of Greeks saw their incomes decrease at the height of the crisis and taxes increase at the same time.

In addition, about 86.9% of respondents believe that the zero budget deficit about which the Prime Minister is talking is due to the tax increases rather than to the restart of the economy, as stated by the government (10%).

The attempt of the government to take Greece out from the grip of the International Monetary Fund and to return it to the financial markets seems to have a low political effect since, according to respondents, it is not the result of fixing the financial situation of Greece (16.4%) but of competing with the policy of SYRIZA, which is against the memoranda (69.1%).

The settlement of bad loans and arrears to the state and the insurance funds, which the government is ready to undertake, can activate business as believed by 37.6% of citizens. Economic recovery is the hope of the residents of Attica and Central Greece, supporters of the ruling coalition, citizens aged over 65, pensioners and freelancers.

Early elections

Greeks are divided on whether early elections would be disastrous for the economy. 47.3% believe that early elections would be a disaster, whereas 46.1% think the opposite. In all cases, however, political parties alone want early elections unlike citizens, as 4 out of 10 Greeks (40.7%) want elections.

The majority of Greeks do not seem to care about the two main contenders to win the elections, as 50.6% do not intend to give a chance either to Alexis Tsipras or to Andonis Samaras.

Conclusions

The ongoing economic crisis in Greece has transferred to the political system too. The rapid changes and the concentration of political time are key features of the times in which we are living.

One-party governments have already remained in the past because not only are the traditional parties cornered and tested but also the multiparty governance model has already established itself.

The uncertain political space in Greece after six and a half years of crisis, along with the collapse of the parties in the form in which they were previously known, have contributed towards the calling into question of this political model and making it alien to citizens. This picture is evident in this poll as well.

Citizens, in turn, economically pressed and politically disoriented, have already established the centrifugal forces that have developed, causing them to drift away from the traditional parties over the past two years.

The poll makes it clear that their preference is already the radical left SYRIZA party and it is based on the principle of the lesser evil.

SYRIZA also needs to improve its ability to govern and its leader the confidence that he inspires in voters.

Citizens know that they cannot expect a significant improvement in their lives since whatever is offered to them, it has come from their increased taxes. At the same time, they do not want early elections, as they are already probably convinced that elections cannot change things.

On the other hand, the government seems unable to convince people in its economic policies, thus putting at risk its position during possible elections if deemed to have failed in the economic sphere.

In conclusion, pessimism regarding the economic outlook for the country is becoming a major criterion in determining voter attitude to political parties.