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Victoria Mindova

The International Monetary Fund and other institutions that come to the rescue in times of crisis have the task to draw the way of the country in trouble. Everything else is in the hands of the government, was firm the Professor in Economics at the Bilgi University, Asaf Savas Akat. The economist was in Athens at the invitation of the Institute for Strategic Studies and Development "Andreas Papandreou" and shared some of the experience of Turkey in the process of economic recovery. Akat underlined that if the people have no will to implement the changes drawn, which in the case of Greece are set out by the Memorandum of financial support, no success could be expected.

"You would ask what the magic is that took out Turkey of the terrible crisis 10 years ago. I would tell you the truth – there is no magic but tight fiscal discipline," said the economist simply. In the late 1990s, Turkey had a budget deficit close to 20% of the GDP and a huge foreign debt. Its economy turnaround is solely due to the socio-economic sacrifices that were made to reach primary budget surpluses. During the last world economic crisis, Turkey has managed to escape from the clutches of the IMF, when other countries were forced to rely on its services. Asaf Savas Akat said that Turkey has reached very low levels of competitive state lending in recent years, but it came when it no longer needed loans. "Capital markets would beg to lend you when you no longer need them. They operate in this way - if you have a great need, however, you will not have access to them."

He stressed that if the Greeks are not willing to implement the "prescribed" reforms and structural changes so as to balance the budget revenue and expenditure, no outcome of the current situation would be found. The economist defined the Memorandum of financial support as a road map for orientation in the hands of the blind, where the public or the government is not willing to implement fiscal consolidation. The stable position of the Turkish economy is mainly due to the strong political and civil will to continue the reforms until the country reaches the desired level of growth and development.

The Institute for Strategic Studies and Development "Andreas Papandreou" has invited not only the economist Asaf Savas Akat of the University in Istanbul, but other prominent Turkish scientists too. The main purpose of the meeting was that they give their perspective on the expected socio-political development after the parliamentary elections in the middle of June this year. The meeting passed under the motto "Turkey - The day after the elections and the international situation" and it was attended also by the Professor of International Relations and Political Science at Bilgi University, Soli Ozel. He presented to the Greek audience some curious details about the upcoming elections that would determine in advance the direction Turkey would take over shortly.

According to Soli Ozel, the results of the upcoming elections are largely predictable. Political scientists are almost sure that the current ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) would win the majority. The key here is what majority would win the party of Recep Erdogan. If the Justice and Development Party wins over 367 seats from the total 550 at the Turkish National Assembly, Erdogan would have a green light to pass through constitutional changes that would delegate many rights to the president, who had no a key role in the country's development until recently. The opposition forces of the Nationalist Movement Party (BCP) and the Peace and Democracy Party (MTCT) on the other hand are against the 27 constitutional amendments provided by Erdogan because they fear that the republic would fall into the authoritarian regime of the Islamists, which would take away Turkey from the temporal policy imposed by Kemal Ataturk at the beginning of last century.
 
According to the Turkish law, a party can enter the parliament if it crosses the 10% threshold of the votes. It is not known for now whether the Nationalist Movement Party (BCP) would be able to cope with this challenge and the left Peace and Democracy Party (MTCT) will launch independent candidates who are also expected to weaken the position of the ruling party to some extent. If the two opposition parties fail to hold at least 220 seats in the National Assembly, the party of Erdogan would face some difficulties in the passage of the new changes that are expected to smoothly change Turkey from a parliamentary to a presidential republic.

The political scientist Soli Ozel believes that the ultimate goal of Erdogan is to win the parliamentary elections and to stand for the next presidential elections. After the changes made in 2007, the elected president is entitled to two five-year mandate, which will allow Erdogan to reshape Turkey's foreign and national policy according to standards close to the Islamic Justice and Development Party. The main concerns of analysts are focused on the citizenship issues in Turkey, which has not yet recognized the existence of different ethnic groups within the country. The idea of ​​"If you live in Turkey, you are a Turk" is the root of the Kurdish issue, says Ozel and it is the logic which the pro-European and secular oriented in the country are trying to fight.