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The upcoming double elections – for local government and for the European Parliament – may turn into a Pandora's box, since PASOK suddenly raised the issue of leaving the government in the event of disapproval of "Elia" and added a new critical variable in the political equation on 25 May.

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New Democracy and SYRIZA lead at the finish line, according to both polls and surveys of the parties themselves, with a difference within the range of statistical error.

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PASOK is moving between 5% and 7% and in this case, the ideal scenario for the government will be if New Democracy is the first party, and "Elia" increases its rates and surpasses "To Potami" so that it becomes the main pole of rearrangement of the centre -left. In this case, the political problem will be transferred to SYRIZA, especially if forecasts about the local elections are confirmed and the party loses the three largest municipalities in the country and the region of Attica.

SYRIZA headquarters may be presenting the victory of the party, even with one vote, in the European elections, but senior party cadres admitted that there will be a victory in the event that SYRIZA surpasses the total rates of New Democracy and "Elia".

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In any case, if New Democracy is the first party, Samaras will confirm his hegemony on the political scene. If PASOK achieves the rates given by polls or even lower ones, this will be crucial for the development of things.

According to information from various camps in PASOK, if "Elia" wins 6%-7%, there will be changes at the headquarters of the party, probably initiated by Venizelos himself, which will affect the leadership of the party, but will not lead to withdrawal from the government, at least at the first stage.

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Costas Skandalidis, who presents the left wing of PASOK, related the future after the European elections with a congress of the party, but many months of preparation will be necessary for this to happen. Although George Papandreou stays away from "Elia" and is in bad relations with Venizelos, he does not believe that the party should withdraw from the government before a debt reduction is agreed with partners.

According to information, in the event of a negative result for "Elia", Samaras will give PASOK time in order to deal with internal problems, delaying as much as possible decisions on difficult bills such as the Social Security bill. And he himself needs time in order to prepare for the battle with Alexis Tsipras in view of the presidential elections, which may not be held in March next year, but earlier.

Antonis Samaras and Evangelos Venizelos, www.karfitsa.gr

Pandora's box will open if PASOK receives less than 6% in the European elections, and Venizelos will have to use "the gun he put on the table" and announce that the party is leaving the government.

In this case, Samaras will have two choices: to ask this Parliament for a new vote of confidence (something which is difficult, but not impossible), or new elections. According to information, this issue was not raised at his meeting with Venizelos. But Samaras made it clear that if the government reached an impasse, the solution would be new elections, and not the creation of another government by this Parliament. The headquarters of New Democracy believes that PASOK’s withdrawal from the government will not take place, since new elections would be disastrous for PASOK.