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What the Russo-Turkish crisis would feel like if Greece was not in the Eurozone

28 November 2015 / 22:11:24  GRReporter
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As is well known, in the summer of 2015 Greece was on the verge of stepping out of the Eurozone. The bluff of the then finance minister Yannis Varoufakis failed and the Greek prime minister, realizing the scope of the disaster, opted for a U-turn. The rest is history.

 Today, assessing the events in France and Syria, we can safely say that the country's exit from the Eurozone would have turned into a national catastrophe. We would have been destroyed economically, politically isolated, scraping a living in an explosive area. And having to cope with hundreds of thousands of refugees on our territory. This is what writer Sakis Moumdzis writes in his analysis for liberal.gr.

 

In politics and history, some situations, whether having materialized or otherwise, acquire much greater importance over time as they were followed by other events, which shed a different light on them. For instance, the consequences of Greece's exit from the Eurozone, which was avoided at the last moment, are given a different meaning and more weight today amid subsequent international developments, which were fairly unpredictable in terms of their scope and intensity.

In his book, History of Contemporary Greece, historian and politician Spiros Markezinis argues that "the most predictable factor in history is the unpredictable factor." This is one of the basic rules of the political game, which experienced players never forget. This is why they do their best to remain on the pitch in spite of adverse conditions and power balances. An unpredictable event or a reversal of fortune can change the environment, in which they act, beyond recognition.

So, within less than 15 days, the terrorist attacks in Paris and the downing of the Russian plane by the Turks profoundly changed the international political arena. From the economy and fiscal discipline, the focus shifted onto security and counterterrorism. The alliances were reshuffled as Putin's Russia joined the block of anti-jihadist forces – something Turkey tried to challenge by carrying out the air force accident.

In this belligerent atmosphere, Greece occupies a secure place in the Eurozone. In a critical juncture like this one, the Greek prime minister has the opportunity and, indeed, the luxury, to be on the first firing line, in Israel, and to discuss business plans with his Israeli counterpart. If the country was not part of the Eurozone, would this visit make any sense? This is obviously a rhetorical question.

Moreover, while participating in the game, Greece will be able to benefit from any relaxation of the fiscal discipline under current conditions. Through relevant manoeuvres, it could also highlight Turkey's aggressiveness at international fora. A rogue state would not have these chances. All we need is to be serious and composed enough. Elements, which were missing during the first seven months of 2015, when the "game theory" was informing the actions of the entire government with the already known results.

Let's think about the situation we would be in today if Varoufakis' cavalier proposal for default and ΙΟU adoption had prevailed on the night of the fateful referendum. Let's think about what prospects Greece now has, after the sudden change in the international climate. And most of all, let's all try and make the correct political conclusions.

 

Tags: analysis Greece Еurozone terrorist strikes Russian fighter jet international scene
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