The return of George Papandreou in Athens from Brussels with "good", "average" or "bad" scenario, under his arm, in all three cases is associated with a difficult period for the country and respectively for the government.
The national "line" is specific, the Greek Prime Minister presents it to the double summit, the clash between Germany and France on the rescue plan is in place, and the volatile climate of the PASOK parliamentary group has already spread to the top (to the Council of Ministers), by sending messages for policy initiatives "here and now."
The heard and recorded scenarios some are "burning" and others are "smoldering" in the sense that the government and lawmakers have reached the end of their strength and are searching for an "event" that will save them. The Prime Minister's office have already received several reports, some of them written in a dramatic tone, while others include something even more than hints, containing forecasts for the rapid developments in the political aspect.
"All scenarios lead to the development of political events, even to elections," notes senior government factor, who emphasizes that the conversation that should be held with the Prime Minister and members of the government for "next day" must be sincere, profound and released from "taboos" and circumlocution.
Parameters
Dilemmas exist and timely response is required. In recent days - before and after the vote that "shrunk" the MPs from the ruling coalition to 153 persons - held were meetings of the Prime Minister’s team, with or without the presence of the Prime Minister. They agreed to consider the "map" of possible scenarios for the country, taking into account the variable parameters which the Franco-German duo for overcoming the crisis, holds in its hands.
The main described dilemma is one that leads to the need to vote on the new agreement for a loan from the Parliament, which according to reliable sources, this time in practice requires a qualified majority of 180 votes. PASOK parliamentary group has already warned about its limits, but an impromptu "poll" done in the Council of Ministers shows that the majority of its members want the burden from the decision to be taken by the opposition.
What about the possible scenario with the resignation of George Papandreou? "I will not resign and I continue the fight to save the country", said to his cooperators George Papandreou, in his desire to answer those who believe that his resignation is on the agenda in order to accelerate actions to establish "new type" office.
And with regard to cooperation scenario, the line of the cabinet suggests a consent agreement between Papandreou and Samaras. It is clear for all that Mr. Samaras has rejected any possibility of agreement and the stormy conflict during the last meeting between the two leaders, virtually excludes such possibility.
Three scenarios
Temporization, early elections and the referendum
"I will not resign" this is George Papandreou’s message. Circles from the cabinet remind of the tenacity of Mr. Papandreou, provide extensive discussions in the core group of government and policy initiatives, which initially "will reset the mileage." The Prime Minister has decided to listen to all the proposals by Ministers and is open to changes that will push reforms and propose a "counterweight" to the affected groups.
The new loan agreement, which could be agreed on today or on Wednesday, is tightly connected with a vote in parliament. The dilemma of the 180 MPs, i.e. of the qualified majority for approval of the new loan, returns with greater force, and apparently will be a highlight in the next session. Whether New Democracy will say "Yes"? "No is its answer to everything," says one of the ministers, and considers it very unlikely to reach an agreement with New Democracy. Therefore, elections? It is certain that the government no longer excludes the possibility of early elections, although this is considered to be a disastrous scenario.
An impromptu poll in the Council of Ministers reveals that the proposed referendum is rejected by most ministers. Only Harris Kastanidis (who returned to the need for political legitimacy) and Dimitris Repas who according to information believes that masses will unite around him, are the only ones who continue to talk about a referendum. Giannis Rangousis initially did not reject this option, bypasses it now. Furthermore some claim that the referendum may exacerbate domestic fluctuations and encourage them to play with the dangerous explosive social mix.
On the negotiating table and the possible changes in cabinet
Something that the Prime Minister will not abandon (if new circumstances do not arise) are his attempts to determine the necessary new starting point in the new cycle, with the new treaty which is being discussed in Brussels.
Ministers who disagree with the elections scenarios offer "tension" and now in structural changes the mechanism of development should be activated and significant changes in the government scheme should be implemented. What do you they mean?
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